Subscription Growth Flywheel Simulator

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Per-order revenue and variable costs.

Average order revenue / subscription price

COGS per order

Shipping / fulfilment per order

Other variable fee % of revenue

Payment fees, returns buffer, and other variable leakage.

Contribution per order updates here.

Expected-value retention per renewal cycle.

Subscription cycle days Use 30, 45, 60, 90, or any custom number of days. Cycle retention

First order happens at acquisition; renewals retain this share of the cohort. Projection months

Choose manual CPA or derive CPA from a payback target.

CPA mode

CPA

The app will calculate realized cohort payback and profit by the target day.

How much cash is available to feed the acquisition flywheel.

Starting acquisition working capital

Reinvestment rate

Profit withdrawal rate: 0% Minimum cash reserve

Max acquisition spend per month

Leave blank for unlimited; useful for platform, inventory, or operational caps. Acquisition aggressiveness

Percent of cash above reserve spent at the start of each month, before the monthly cap.

Monthly order revenue, contribution before CAC, net profit after CAC, and hold-pattern profit.

Reinvested cash pool, withdrawn cash, and cumulative net profit.

New customers, active subscribers, and optional marketing spend pressure.

Expected values using daily cohort order timing and 30-day reporting months.

Month	New customers	Active subscribers	Revenue	Contribution	Marketing spend	Net profit	Hold-pattern profit	Cash pool	Withdrawn cash cumulative

Expected-value model; retention is deterministic cohort math, not random customer-level churn.
Not accounting, tax, legal, or investment advice.
Excludes fixed overhead, inventory delays, refunds, taxes, and financing costs unless you add them into the variable fee buffer.
Cash timing is simplified: ad spend is paid upfront at acquisition; COGS, shipping, fees, and contribution are recognized at order time.
The reinvestment lever applies to positive monthly profit after CAC; loss months do not distribute cash.
Hold-pattern profit freezes the month-end active subscriber base, spends only enough CPA to replace expected monthly churn, and treats the remainder as sustainable monthly profit.
Projection months are 30-day periods; cohort orders are simulated by exact day offsets inside each period.